E-1042Coordinated Influence Operation

Coordinated "imminent blackouts" narrative targeting Nasza Energia S.A.

A coordinated campaign claiming imminent rolling blackouts and a ~300% electricity-price spike this winter, blaming Nasza Energia S.A. for mismanagement and profiteering. Seeded from two domains sharing infrastructure, amplified by ~60 accounts across 3 synchronized clusters.

Detected: 18 Nov 2024 · Last updated: 29 Nov 2024

Recommended action

REACT

Confidence

78%

Priority score

82/100

Priority breakdown

Reach74
Coordination91
Growth85
N-R Gap88
Action Risk72

Diagnosis

Coordinated influence operation. Two seed domains (energiaprawda.info, blackout-alert.pl) share hosting provider and WHOIS registrar, registered 8 days apart. Network topology shows classic amplification pattern: 3 tightly-connected clusters with synchronized posting times (median inter-post interval: 47 seconds within clusters). 7 accounts flagged as likely automated based on posting cadence and creation-date clustering. Narrative is factually inconsistent with current TTF gas pricing (down 8%) and day-ahead power market (flat).

Coordination Network

62 accounts · 3 clusters
Source nodes Cluster 1 (seed) Cluster 2 (amplifiers) Cluster 3 (regional) Automated

Coordination evidence: 2 source domains (energiaprawda.info, blackout-alert.pl) share the same hosting provider (BV-Host (Chisinau)) and registrar (NameSilo LLC), registered 8 days apart. 6 accounts flagged as likely automated.

Spread Timeline

Daily volume by platform

Clear inflection at day 5 when content jumped from Telegram seed channels to X/Twitter amplifiers. Regional Facebook groups activated ~day 6.

Narrative - Reality Gap

Claimed impact vs. actual economic indicators

TTF natural gas futures down 8.2% over the detection window. Polish day-ahead power prices flat (+0.4%). No supply disruptions reported by PSE (grid operator). Narrative claims of 300% price spike and blackout risk are not supported by any market indicator.

Divergence index (0 = aligned, 1 = maximum gap)

Economic indicators

TTF Gas Futures:-8.2%(down)
Day-Ahead Power (PL):+0.4%(flat)
Gap index:85%

Counter-Evidence Pack

COUNTER-EVIDENCE BRIEF - E-1042 Generated: 2026-07-07 (synthetic demo data) CLAIM: "Coordinated "imminent blackouts" narrative targeting Nasza Energia S.A." REALITY CHECK: - TTF Gas Futures: down 8.2% over detection window (EUR/MWh) - Day-Ahead Power (PL): up 0.4% over detection window (PLN/MWh) NARRATIVE-REALITY GAP: 85% divergence SUMMARY: TTF natural gas futures down 8.2% over the detection window. Polish day-ahead power prices flat (+0.4%). No supply disruptions reported by PSE (grid operator). Narrative claims of 300% price spike and blackout risk are not supported by any market indicator. CONFIDENCE: 78% RECOMMENDATION: REACT

Auto-generated summary for communications teams. All values are from synthetic demo data.

Action-Risk Estimate

Network-diffusion model

P(collective action)

72%
CI 95%: [60% - 84%]
0%50%100%

Top contributing factors

SlaskieHigh energy-poverty rate (23%)
SlaskieSingle-industry dependence (coal transition)
SlaskiePrior protest history (2023 mining strikes)
MalopolskieEnergy-poverty rate (18%)
MalopolskieActive local media amplification

Decision support only. This estimate is generated by a network-diffusion model (confidence: 78%). It is one input to a human decision-maker, not an autonomous recommendation. Model assumptions and limitations are documented in the audit trail.

Geographic Risk

Regions affected by this event, ranked by action-risk score

Slaskie

81% risk
Risk score81%
Action risk74%
28 active sources
  • •High energy-poverty rate (23%)
  • •Single-industry dependence (coal transition)
  • •Prior protest history (2023 mining strikes)

Malopolskie

68% risk
Risk score68%
Action risk59%
19 active sources
  • •Energy-poverty rate (18%)
  • •Active local media amplification
  • •Regional election cycle (Feb 2025)

Podkarpackie

62% risk
Risk score62%
Action risk53%
15 active sources
  • •Highest heating-cost burden nationally
  • •Low media literacy scores
  • •Rural population reliant on single info sources
View full geographic map for this event